Middle-earth chronology
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Middle-earth chronology
I was wondering if anyone might be interested in a bit of research I did. Being very curious to find a precise date for the events in the books I had conducted a lengthy internet search only to come up with one result; 3102 BC for the start of the Fourth Age. This did not square with a Tolkien quote that the Fall of Barad-dur occured about 6,000 years ago(in a 1958 interview).
Knowing a little about astronomy I decided to do my own calculation. There are 1,000 different years that may be considered as about 6,000 years before 1958 so the task might seem impossible. But this was not the case. About 90% of the dates can be eliminated by looking at when the phases of the moon occured in that year. And of those 95% can be taken out due to the scene of the Mirror of Galadriel where Venus is described as being high and bright in the evening sky. This left only the years 4000, 4008, 4016, 4494, 4502, and 4510 BC. The second group of three could only barely be described as "about 6,000" years ago. Of the remaining three the years of 4000 and 4016 BC would be difficult, albeit possible, fits. This left a quite likely candidate of 4008 BC for the year of 3019 of the Third Age. To be even more precise, Midsummer's Day in that year would have been July 22 (Julian calendar) or June 20(Gregorian) 4008 BC.
No other date seems a good match.
So there you have it. Could this be it?
Knowing a little about astronomy I decided to do my own calculation. There are 1,000 different years that may be considered as about 6,000 years before 1958 so the task might seem impossible. But this was not the case. About 90% of the dates can be eliminated by looking at when the phases of the moon occured in that year. And of those 95% can be taken out due to the scene of the Mirror of Galadriel where Venus is described as being high and bright in the evening sky. This left only the years 4000, 4008, 4016, 4494, 4502, and 4510 BC. The second group of three could only barely be described as "about 6,000" years ago. Of the remaining three the years of 4000 and 4016 BC would be difficult, albeit possible, fits. This left a quite likely candidate of 4008 BC for the year of 3019 of the Third Age. To be even more precise, Midsummer's Day in that year would have been July 22 (Julian calendar) or June 20(Gregorian) 4008 BC.
No other date seems a good match.
So there you have it. Could this be it?
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